The Chart du Jour
If one looks at the breadth of the U.S. equity market the last month, the broader indices may have been going down, but the Advance-Decline line has been turning upward. We think that the equity market is getting tired in its downside spiral, and while a sharp reveral higher may not be immediately in the cards, the latest collapse is likely to subside rather than accelerate. Some Elliot analysts such as Bob Prechter's group are calling for a 3 of III down directly in front of us. We just don't see it. The financial sector still looks ripe for sale, but little else.
And maybe that makes sense since last year's dot.com fever on Wall Street will surely not be repeated this year, and on a comparitive basis, Wall Street fee revenue is destined to plummet. So too will Madison Avenue's income. Last year's Super Bowl sported 17 dot.com advertisers scrambling for air-time. This year's will sport just four. These are all knock-on effects of last year's bubble collapse that are simply taking time to filter through the system.
So too do we think the recent run in U.S. dollar weakness and European currency strength is likely to pause. As today's Chart du Jour above we picture both the British pound and the European euro that recently have been ever so strong. Monday's price action brought an outside day down in the pound, however, and a "hang day" with a low close in the Euro where the price rhythm on a Fibonacci basis looks relatively complete for the moment. We think a pullback to moving average support near 1.46 is now likely in the pound. The euro should also retrace.
Writing commentary like this is not as fulfilling as predicting last year's equity free-fall, but as the saying goes: "Ye takes what ye can get," and for early 2000 at least, we see a congested range-trade building in multiple markets.
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