Sand Spring Advisors LLC

Sub-Indices Not Suggestive of Happy World

June 9, 2004

by, Barclay T. Leib

The major equity indices are -- as seems so often the case -- yielding sloppy chart formations - feigning an upside breakout perhaps. It is certainly easy to wonder: Did global capital markets over-react in April-May to the perception of coming higher interest rates within the U.S.? And could equity markets perhaps cruise higher when a 25 basis point hike in late June changes little in terms of immediate consumer spending habits?

Such thoughts are of course worthy of consideration, but when we look at the three sub-index charts below, we end up seeing something far more simple and compelling: sell banks, sell biotechs, and watch for one final blow-off move higher in the oils.

Such a combination does not auger for a "happy world" over the summer.


Chart produced by: Advanced GET End-of-Day


Chart produced by: Advanced GET End-of-Day


Chart produced by: Advanced GET End-of-Day

1065 and then 990-1010 on the S&P remain downside targets in our mind. Only on a strong vault above 1160 on the S&P will we be forced to consider instead a steady march to 1260 on the S&P by December. If the latter were to occur, which we doubt, it will be a "shop 'til they drop" move that would eventually force the Fed to be far more aggressive in their tightening stance -- and thus leave U.S. markets more prone to a 1987 Crash type of move. We think a "step and stumble move lower" now remains more likely.

The last week of June will be the 233rd (Fibonacci) week from the January 2000 market top in the DJIA and the 89th (Fibonacci) week from the October 2002 market low. We will be looking for resolution -- one way or the other -- to the recent market holding pattern by that time. Alas, of course, the Fed meets then as well.


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