Sand Spring Advisors LLC

Buy the Right Market

December 14, 2003

by, Barclay T. Leib

OK. Saddam is caught, and the financial markets will likely want to party.

But we have previously espoused on these pages that 1089 should be the next level of stiff Fibonacci resistance for the S&P 500 -- hardly 1.5% above current levels. To our eye, this will be more a finale, rather than anything else for the U.S. equity markets.

However, if you have to buy something, the Japanese Nikkei might offer a more compelling potential rhythm to the upside. From current levels, the chart below of the Mar'04 IMM Nikkei futures implies perhaps 11-12% rally potential. 11,444-11,469 would be the specific target range.

If and when such a target is achieved, and moving out to an even longer perspective, new Nikkei lows are eventually still possible to complete the huge bear market from 1989. But for now, this is where our bullish dollar has and will continue to be -- at least for a trade.

How Your Articles Are Delivered
Upon the processing of your credit card or the receipt of a personal check, Sand Spring will e-mail you the articles requested as a Word attachment, and also provide you with a WWW address and password to view the article on the web without using Word should you so desire. Confirmation of your order will be immediate, and the actual article will follow by e-mail typically within a few hours and in all cases before the opening of NYSE trading on the following day.

Ordering by Credit Card:
Our shopping cart is designed for both physical and subscription products, so do not be confused too much when it asks you for a shipping address. A correct address is important only for credit card authorization purposes. Your e-mail information is the most important piece of information to us for proper delivery of your article(s).

Disclosure Statement

Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. The opinions expressed are not intended as specific investment advice, and simply represent our personal views offered here under our right of free speech. Sand Spring Advisors is a NFA registered CTA/CPO, but is not a Registered Investment Advisor. We do not directly trade any client funds. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and we will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.

  • Depressed in the Short and Long-Term, But Equity Hubris Ending Soon...October 2003...
    This article discusses all the silliness that currently abounds in the equity markets, and while frustrating in the short-term to straight thinking people, is likely to end soon.....
    Available for Purchase at $45. THIS INCLUDES ALL ARTICLES BELOW FOR FREE.
    • Tops 11-Weeks Apart & Regime Shifts or Lack Thereof...September 2003...
      This article discusses why we see an equity topping formation to be imminent, and why thoughts by some at the current time of a normal cyclical recovery are likely to be quite misplaced.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Debt Bubble Unwind & a Market of Stocks vs. a Stock Market... August 2003...
      This article discusses the traumatic events of the fixed income market in July 2003 and the beginning of a debt bubble unwind that is likely to last several years. An update on many of Sand Spring's other views in foreign exchange, equity indices, and individual equites is also provided over a total of 15-pages of text and charts.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • The Jig is Up --The Current Market & How Freddie Mac Likely Speculated...July 2003...
      This article moves from a discussion of the current technical position of the U.S. equity market, to an updated and detailed discussion about accounting issues at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Debt Bubble & Inslamic Threats...May 2003...
      This article moves from a discussion of the technical position of T-Notes and euro-yen as of late May 2003, to a discussion of possible unforseen implications of the Bush Tax package, to a look at the technical pattern of certain stocks such as Fannie Mae and MBIA.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Ugliness Coming...April 2003...
      This article moves from a discussion on SARS, to the Iraqi peace, to an update on pension fund accounting problems, to other fundamental issues of much ongoing importance.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Dealing with Irrationality & The New Age of Acquarius: Malkiel Out; Sornette In...March 2003...
      This article steps through our March 19th cycle date that marked the commencement of the Iraqi War. It also lauds UCLA professor Didier Sornette's latest work on the rhythm of market behavior.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Gentle Early Spring, But Rough Summer...February 2003...
      This article lays out various cyclical concerns we have for June and July 2003, as well as other thoughts on Asian markets.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Various 2002 Perspectives & Ongoing 2003 Concerns...December 2002...
      This article spends some time discussing somewhat disappointing hedge fund returns in 2002, and some of the reasons behind these muted returns. It also highlights our overall cyclical roadmap for the broader market indices in 2003 and certain chart patterns that we deem particularly attractive potential longs and short-selling candidates at the current time.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Iceberg Risk: The Rumbling Earth & Mortgage Market Malaise...November 2002...
      This article spends much time discussing Fannie Mae and the growing volatility of U.S. fixed income markets. Also highlighted are certain chart patterns that we deem particularly strong short-selling candidates.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • 72, 12, 7 - The Ancient Language of Mathematics, Upcoming Pi-Related Cyclical Rhythms...October 2002...
      This is an updated overview of how we see 2003-2004 developing, and offers specific date clusters related to pi rhythms that should be of particular importance to the financial markets. For those interested in the history of pi mathematics through ancient times, much historical context is also offered.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • The New Era of Government, Debt Default & Weakening Consumerism...August 2002...
      This article offers a long-term look at interest rate trends and its anticipated interplay with the now sagging U.S. consumer and retail sector.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Biotech Bottom?...July 2002...
      Within this article we anticipated a tradeable rally developing in the Biotech sector between July and November 2002. Several security-specific chart patterns are examined. A second update to this piece, published in mid-July, further elaborated on the broader market indices. We eventually got our bounce in these broader indices post July 23rd, but the Biotechs were quite honestly a disappointment.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • A Coincidence of Time...June 2002...
      Within this article we consider a variety of cycle timing techniques that upon occasion form important date clusters.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • In Search of Survivable Themes...May 2002...
      Within this article we consider survivable investment themes in today's markets, and two small-cap stocks from down under that may fit this bill.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Pension Asset & Liability Blues...March 2002...
      Within this article we explore much misunderstood and underestimated ERISA and FAS accounting that could cause a two-decade long malaise in corporate profitability. We also update many of our previously espoused long and short views.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Complicated Moves...February 2002...
      A temporarily bullish look at the DJIA, written in late February 2002, together with a discussion of several value stocks that we like within this market.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Zig-Zag Markets, and What Will Go Thud that Hasn't Already...January 2002...
      In this article, we discuss the path we expect into our important November 2002 cycle date, and several specific short selling opportunities in industries as far afield as trucks to bread...
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • 2002: A Golden Year? ...December 2001...
      In this article, we explore the cyclical rhythm of the gold and gold equity market, and what it portends for next year. Several stock-specific charts and fundamentals are examined...
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Kasriel to Greenspan: Farewell Soon? ...November 2001...
      In this article, across 17 chart-filled pages, Northern Trust chief economist Paul Kasriel scathingly exposes many of the flaws of Alan Greenspan's Fed, and how Greenspan may actually have set the economy up for the 2000 Tech-Wreck...
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • The Cycle of War & The Agony of Debt...October 2001...
      In this article, across 12 chart-filled pages, we explore how relative geo-political calm can suddenly digress to a temper-filled period of war, as well as current fundamental pressures on the U.S. economy from excessive corporate and household debt burdens...
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Perspectives on Where We Are, and Why ISDA Documentation Will Not Prevent Derivatives Accidents, September 2001...
      An update on prior views and prognostications, as well as a discussion of a new market sector now potentially coming to life on the long side. We also examine how easy it might be for a major bank such as JP Morgan to someday suffer a serious derivatives accident
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Long_Term Equity, Gold, and K-Wave Cycle Thoughts, August 2001...
      A long-term look at our own cycle theories and how they may potentially interact with the famous Kondratieff cycle
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • The Importance of June 2nd, May, 2001...
      A cyclical look at the 8.6 month cycle at work in the current equity market, and one financial stock with a nasty looking "pattern match" to a historical chart pattern
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Expert Short Picks, May, 2001...
      A discussion of the fundamental thoughts of short selling hedge fund manager James Chanos within a technical framework
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Four Themes for 2001 & Beyond, April, 2001...
      A variety of issues we see growing in importance over the year 2001, with a particular emphasis on certain issues within the U.S. food chain.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Portfolio from Hell, January 20, 2001...
      a close critique of a major mutual fund manager and a technical look at the individual equity components of their go-go portfolio.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Positive for Now, January 4, 2001...
      If the DJIA were to vault to new highs, where would the imbedded Fibonacci rhythm of its price action lead?
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Time to Start Accumulating the Golds? - Dec. 2000...
      We take a close look at four gold-related stocks that we favor.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Don't Look for a Bottom Until..., Nov. 2000...
      An update of some Fibonacci thoughts on eight selected stocks.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Diamonds in the Sky, Oct. 2000...
      A close technical look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the implications of the formation it has made.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • The Signficance of Oct 27- Nov 1, Oct. 2000...
      This analysis did not pan out quite as we expected, but is a good example of how we examine the world in Fibonacci terms.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • M&A Currency Imbalances, Oct. 2000...
      An interview with a well known fund manager and economic thinker, we explore some of the macro-imabalnces as they exist in the world today.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Failed Accounting Standards, Mmm Mmm Good, and Where (if at all) to Invest in Bandwidth, July 2000...
      A three-part article outlining some of the balance sheet fun and games of today's financial world, one old-world stock, as well as our vision of the potential fallout and opportunities in the bandwidth market
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Cyclical Commodity Turns, May 2000...
      As we entered the summer-time harvest season, this was a cyclical look at the world of wheat, corn, gold, and the CRB. Much of the analysis proved premature, but it still leaves us with some long-term cyclical dates to now keep in mind.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.
    • E-Commerce: A Paired Approach, April 2000...
      This is a more fundamentally oriented article examing the likely winners and losers as e-commerce increasingly invades the transactional side of Wall Street.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

  • Subscribe to Sandspring.com on a quarterly basis and receive all of the the above articles, and all that follow them (a minimum of 3 more per quarter), plus all Chart du Jours (some of which would otherwise be pay-per-view) for just $85. THIS INCLUDES OUR latest 17-page November 21st, 2003 article -- What Growth? & The Latest Thoughts from the "Warren Buffett of the Dark Side."

    • If you order by credit card, your credit card will be billed as "Sand Spring Advisors LLC"

    Should you have any ordering problems, please contact us at
    973-829-1962 or by email at the address below:

    information@Sandspring.com

    Take me back to the Sand Spring Home Page

    Comments or Problems

    Thank you for visiting Sand Spring Advisors LLC, Inc. We hope to hear from you again soon. For more information on Sand Spring Advisors actual programs, services, or to request a copy of a Disclosure Document, please phone us at 973 829 1962, FAX your request to 973 829 1962, or e-mail us at     information@Sandspring.com

    Corporate Office:
    10 Jenks Road,
    Morristown, NJ 07960
    Phone: 973 829 1962
    Facsimile: 973 829 1962

    Best Experienced with

    Click here to start.

    The material located on this website is also the copyrighted work of Sand Spring Advisors LLC. No party may copy, distribute or prepare derivative works based on this material in any manner without the expressed permission of Sand Spring Advisors LLC

    This page and all contents are Copyright © 2002 by Sand Spring Advisors, LLC, Morristown, NJ