Sand Spring Advisors LLC

Turkey Trouble

November 26, 2003

by, Barclay T. Leib

In his classic book, "Behavior of Prices on Wall Street," Arthur Merrill once showed on a historical basis that the day after Thanksgiving is often an up-day -- rising a a statistically robust 66% of the time, and sporting the strongest post-holiday single-day directional bias of the year.

But in 2003, and Art Merrill notwithstanding, our best chart analysis continues to suggest sudden equity weakness developing. Although our previously espoused pattern match of November 16th, did not forecast the degree of this Monday's rally, we continue to see a potential hourly rhythm on the S&P that should lead toward a revised downside target of 1002. Reaching such a target by the next PEI cycle date of December 5th remains a possibility -- despite this date only being some 6 trading days away.

While we send our best holiday wishes to our readers, we still must proactively warn of some sort of Turkey-time trouble.

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Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. The opinions expressed are not intended as specific investment advice, and simply represent our personal views offered here under our right of free speech. Sand Spring Advisors is a NFA registered CTA/CPO, but is not a Registered Investment Advisor. We do not directly trade any client funds. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and we will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.

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