Sand Spring Advisors LLC

Market Hubris

October 14, 2003

by, Barclay T. Leib

It is not often that we post the bear below. We did so back on September 25th when discussing the individual chart pattern of Sun Microsystems, and then got almost instant satisfaction when Sun announced a billion dollar accounting-related write-off.

Elsewhere, the first of our espoused support regions on USD/JPY that was discussed back on September 22nd is also now being approached.

These have been successful trades and observations. Selective quality over quantity continues to be a general Sand Spring business goal.

But as far as the overall S&P price pattern, frustration has ruled.

Hence we have been quiet, trying to think carefully and re-calibrate. The S&P's prior high at 1040.29 has now been taken out, and thus it is time to at least say something. Subscribers may access our latest October article with our latest thoughts by clicking here.

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Disclosure Statement

Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. The opinions expressed are not intended as specific investment advice, and simply represent our personal views offered here under our right of free speech. Sand Spring Advisors is a NFA registered CTA/CPO, but is not a Registered Investment Advisor. We do not directly trade any client funds. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and we will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.

  • Tops 11-Weeks Apart & Regime Shifts or Lack Thereof...September 2003...
    This article discusses why we see an equity topping formation to be imminent, and why thoughts by some at the current time of a normal cyclical recovery are likely to be quite misplaced.....
    Available for Purchase at $45. THIS INCLUDES ALL ARTICLES BELOW FOR FREE.
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      This article discusses the traumatic events of the fixed income market in July 2003 and the beginning of a debt bubble unwind that is likely to last several years. An update on many of Sand Spring's other views in foreign exchange, equity indices, and individual equites is also provided over a total of 15-pages of text and charts.
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    • The Jig is Up --The Current Market & How Freddie Mac Likely Speculated...July 2003...
      This article moves from a discussion of the current technical position of the U.S. equity market, to an updated and detailed discussion about accounting issues at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
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    • Debt Bubble & Inslamic Threats...May 2003...
      This article moves from a discussion of the technical position of T-Notes and euro-yen as of late May 2003, to a discussion of possible unforseen implications of the Bush Tax package, to a look at the technical pattern of certain stocks such as Fannie Mae and MBIA.
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    • Ugliness Coming...April 2003...
      This article moves from a discussion on SARS, to the Iraqi peace, to an update on pension fund accounting problems, to other fundamental issues of much ongoing importance.
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    • Dealing with Irrationality & The New Age of Acquarius: Malkiel Out; Sornette In...March 2003...
      This article steps through our March 19th cycle date that marked the commencement of the Iraqi War. It also lauds UCLA professor Didier Sornette's latest work on the rhythm of market behavior.
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    • Gentle Early Spring, But Rough Summer...February 2003...
      This article lays out various cyclical concerns we have for June and July 2003, as well as other thoughts on Asian markets.
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    • Various 2002 Perspectives & Ongoing 2003 Concerns...December 2002...
      This article spends some time discussing somewhat disappointing hedge fund returns in 2002, and some of the reasons behind these muted returns. It also highlights our overall cyclical roadmap for the broader market indices in 2003 and certain chart patterns that we deem particularly attractive potential longs and short-selling candidates at the current time.
      Available for FREE with purchase above.

    • Iceberg Risk: The Rumbling Earth & Mortgage Market Malaise...November 2002...
      This article spends much time discussing Fannie Mae and the growing volatility of U.S. fixed income markets. Also highlighted are certain chart patterns that we deem particularly strong short-selling candidates.
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    • 72, 12, 7 - The Ancient Language of Mathematics, Upcoming Pi-Related Cyclical Rhythms...October 2002...
      This is an updated overview of how we see 2003-2004 developing, and offers specific date clusters related to pi rhythms that should be of particular importance to the financial markets. For those interested in the history of pi mathematics through ancient times, much historical context is also offered.
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    • The New Era of Government, Debt Default & Weakening Consumerism...August 2002...
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    • A Coincidence of Time...June 2002...
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    • In Search of Survivable Themes...May 2002...
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    • Pension Asset & Liability Blues...March 2002...
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    • Complicated Moves...February 2002...
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    • 2002: A Golden Year? ...December 2001...
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    • Kasriel to Greenspan: Farewell Soon? ...November 2001...
      In this article, across 17 chart-filled pages, Northern Trust chief economist Paul Kasriel scathingly exposes many of the flaws of Alan Greenspan's Fed, and how Greenspan may actually have set the economy up for the 2000 Tech-Wreck...
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    • The Cycle of War & The Agony of Debt...October 2001...
      In this article, across 12 chart-filled pages, we explore how relative geo-political calm can suddenly digress to a temper-filled period of war, as well as current fundamental pressures on the U.S. economy from excessive corporate and household debt burdens...
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    • Perspectives on Where We Are, and Why ISDA Documentation Will Not Prevent Derivatives Accidents, September 2001...
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    • Long_Term Equity, Gold, and K-Wave Cycle Thoughts, August 2001...
      A long-term look at our own cycle theories and how they may potentially interact with the famous Kondratieff cycle
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    • The Importance of June 2nd, May, 2001...
      A cyclical look at the 8.6 month cycle at work in the current equity market, and one financial stock with a nasty looking "pattern match" to a historical chart pattern
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    • Expert Short Picks, May, 2001...
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    • Four Themes for 2001 & Beyond, April, 2001...
      A variety of issues we see growing in importance over the year 2001, with a particular emphasis on certain issues within the U.S. food chain.
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    • Portfolio from Hell, January 20, 2001...
      a close critique of a major mutual fund manager and a technical look at the individual equity components of their go-go portfolio.
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    • Positive for Now, January 4, 2001...
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    • Diamonds in the Sky, Oct. 2000...
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    • E-Commerce: A Paired Approach, April 2000...
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