Sand Spring Advisors LLC

Yen Breakout

September 22, 2003

by, Barclay T. Leib

For sometime now, we have been expecting the 115-121 range in USD/JPY to give way, most likely to the dollar downside (yen upside), and specifically advised so in our August subscriber-only article.

As of Friday, such a breakout appears to now be transpiring, the Japanese having stopped intervening at 115 late last week, and Japanese finance officials subsequently mumbling words over the weekend of allowing the yen to appreciate.

The fan lines above (with past significant areas of support and resistance highlighted in red) would suggest an initial objective toward 92.00 in futures (near 108.70 in spot over time), followed by a longer term area of resistance near 114 in futures (at or about 87.70 in spot over time).

The day that this latter objective is ever seen will undoubtedly be a scary one.

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Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. The opinions expressed are not intended as specific investment advice, and simply represent our personal views offered here under our right of free speech. Sand Spring Advisors is a NFA registered CTA/CPO, but is not a Registered Investment Advisor. We do not directly trade any client funds. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and we will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.

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