Sand Spring Advisors LLC

Required Reading

September 15, 2003

by, Barclay T. Leib

At times in the past, we have chided Bill Gross of Pimco for offering cogent macro analysis, but then going on to also offer dubious actual investment advice by "talking his book" and suggesting investors buy leveraged municipal bond funds.

But Mr. Gross's September 2003 Commentary contains no such investment advice. Instead, it should simply be required reading for all Americans.

We liked it so much that we offer the link above with only two further thoughts. Could the "Big S" Mr. Gross refers to perhaps be catalyzed by a certain hurricane headed in the East Coast's direction?

Also isn't that 5-waves down we spy in Mr. Gross's chart of the U.S Trade Deficit as a percentage of GDP? If so, it implies a renewed "official" recession (depression?) in the immediate future of the U.S. economy.

Non-subscribers are invited to access our September 7th article, "Tops 11-Weeks Apart & Regime Shifts or Lack Thereof" together with other past articles, by signing up for a quarterly Sandspring.com subscription below.

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Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. The opinions expressed are not intended as specific investment advice, and simply represent our personal views offered here under our right of free speech. Sand Spring Advisors is a NFA registered CTA/CPO, but is not a Registered Investment Advisor. We do not directly trade any client funds. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and we will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.

  • Debt Bubble Unwind & a Market of Stocks vs. a Stock Market...July 2003...
    This article discusses the traumatic events of the fixed income market in July 2003 and the beginning of a debt bubble unwind that is likely to last several years. An update on many of Sand Spring's other views in foreign exchange, equity indices, and individual equites is also provided over a total of 15-pages of text and charts........
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      This article moves from a discussion of the current technical position of the U.S. equity market, to an updated and detailed discussion about accounting issues at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
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    • Ugliness Coming...April 2003...
      This article moves from a discussion on SARS, to the Iraqi peace, to an update on pension fund accounting problems, to other fundamental issues of much ongoing importance.
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    • Dealing with Irrationality & The New Age of Acquarius: Malkiel Out; Sornette In...March 2003...
      This article steps through our March 19th cycle date that marked the commencement of the Iraqi War. It also lauds UCLA professor Didier Sornette's latest work on the rhythm of market behavior.
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    • Gentle Early Spring, But Rough Summer...February 2003...
      This article lays out various cyclical concerns we have for June and July 2003, as well as other thoughts on Asian markets.
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    • Various 2002 Perspectives & Ongoing 2003 Concerns...December 2002...
      This article spends some time discussing somewhat disappointing hedge fund returns in 2002, and some of the reasons behind these muted returns. It also highlights our overall cyclical roadmap for the broader market indices in 2003 and certain chart patterns that we deem particularly attractive potential longs and short-selling candidates at the current time.
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    • Iceberg Risk: The Rumbling Earth & Mortgage Market Malaise...November 2002...
      This article spends much time discussing Fannie Mae and the growing volatility of U.S. fixed income markets. Also highlighted are certain chart patterns that we deem particularly strong short-selling candidates.
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    • 72, 12, 7 - The Ancient Language of Mathematics, Upcoming Pi-Related Cyclical Rhythms...October 2002...
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    • The New Era of Government, Debt Default & Weakening Consumerism...August 2002...
      This article offers a long-term look at interest rate trends and its anticipated interplay with the now sagging U.S. consumer and retail sector.
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    • Biotech Bottom?...July 2002...
      Within this article we anticipated a tradeable rally developing in the Biotech sector between July and November 2002. Several security-specific chart patterns are examined. A second update to this piece, published in mid-July, further elaborated on the broader market indices. We eventually got our bounce in these broader indices post July 23rd, but the Biotechs were quite honestly a disappointment.
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    • A Coincidence of Time...June 2002...
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    • In Search of Survivable Themes...May 2002...
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    • Pension Asset & Liability Blues...March 2002...
      Within this article we explore much misunderstood and underestimated ERISA and FAS accounting that could cause a two-decade long malaise in corporate profitability. We also update many of our previously espoused long and short views.
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    • Complicated Moves...February 2002...
      A temporarily bullish look at the DJIA, written in late February 2002, together with a discussion of several value stocks that we like within this market.
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    • Zig-Zag Markets, and What Will Go Thud that Hasn't Already...January 2002...
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    • Kasriel to Greenspan: Farewell Soon? ...November 2001...
      In this article, across 17 chart-filled pages, Northern Trust chief economist Paul Kasriel scathingly exposes many of the flaws of Alan Greenspan's Fed, and how Greenspan may actually have set the economy up for the 2000 Tech-Wreck...
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    • The Cycle of War & The Agony of Debt...October 2001...
      In this article, across 12 chart-filled pages, we explore how relative geo-political calm can suddenly digress to a temper-filled period of war, as well as current fundamental pressures on the U.S. economy from excessive corporate and household debt burdens...
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    • Perspectives on Where We Are, and Why ISDA Documentation Will Not Prevent Derivatives Accidents, September 2001...
      An update on prior views and prognostications, as well as a discussion of a new market sector now potentially coming to life on the long side. We also examine how easy it might be for a major bank such as JP Morgan to someday suffer a serious derivatives accident
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    • Long_Term Equity, Gold, and K-Wave Cycle Thoughts, August 2001...
      A long-term look at our own cycle theories and how they may potentially interact with the famous Kondratieff cycle
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    • The Importance of June 2nd, May, 2001...
      A cyclical look at the 8.6 month cycle at work in the current equity market, and one financial stock with a nasty looking "pattern match" to a historical chart pattern
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    • Expert Short Picks, May, 2001...
      A discussion of the fundamental thoughts of short selling hedge fund manager James Chanos within a technical framework
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    • Four Themes for 2001 & Beyond, April, 2001...
      A variety of issues we see growing in importance over the year 2001, with a particular emphasis on certain issues within the U.S. food chain.
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    • Portfolio from Hell, January 20, 2001...
      a close critique of a major mutual fund manager and a technical look at the individual equity components of their go-go portfolio.
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    • Positive for Now, January 4, 2001...
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    • Time to Start Accumulating the Golds? - Dec. 2000...
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    • Diamonds in the Sky, Oct. 2000...
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