Sand Spring Advisors LLC
Too Many Specs: Copper
August 10, 2003
by, Barclay T. Leib
It is entirely possible -- if not likely -- that many readers of Sandspring.com are tired of hearing our negative views on copper. After all, we've only been espousing such views since late 2002, and then the week before last, copper proceeded to break higher, making new yearly highs, just after we made a renewed call for it to break lower. While copper then gave back most of these gains over the past week, its price still currently hovers above 80 cents on the active September NYMEX contract.
But here at Sand Spring Advisors we are contrarians at heart, and when we look at the chart below sent to us by a friend, we cringe at the amount of speculative involvement long this metal. Spec longs in copper currently stand at nothing short of record highs -- a very negative contrarian signal. Just look at how the metal has subsequently traded from other slightly lesser peaks of speculative froth.
It is of course possible that in a similar manner that the S&P could still make one last run toward 1060 or so, copper could still attract sufficient spec interest to poke its head up to 84.80 -- a further Fibonacci band of resistance that we can spy. But for investors who try to bet on either such occurrence, we have little other than to warn: Buyer beware! If copper has not already started its reversal lower with last week's sloppy price action, a downside reversal of significant magnitude is still in the offing. The trap door on complacent long specs may not have sprung open quite yet, but it will. Longer-dated put options and a bit more patience are the order of the day.
Non-subscribers are invited to access our August 2nd article, "Debt Bubble Unwind & a Market of Stocks vs. a Stock Market" together with other past articles, by signing up for a quarterly Sandspring.com subscription below.
How Your Articles Are Delivered
Upon the processing of your credit card or the receipt of a personal check, Sand Spring will e-mail you the articles requested as a Word attachment, and also provide you with a WWW address and password to view the article on the web without using Word should you so desire. Confirmation of your order will be immediate, and the actual article will follow by e-mail typically within a few hours and in all cases before the opening of NYSE trading on the following day.
Ordering by Credit Card:
Our shopping cart is designed for both physical and subscription products, so do not be confused too much when it asks you for a shipping address. A correct address is important only for credit card authorization purposes. Your e-mail information is the most important piece of information to us for proper delivery of your article(s).
Disclosure Statement
Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. The opinions expressed are not intended as specific investment advice, and simply represent our personal views offered here under our right of free speech. Sand Spring Advisors is a NFA registered CTA/CPO, but is not a Registered Investment Advisor. We do not directly trade any client funds. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and we will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.
If you order by credit card, your credit card will be billed as "Sand Spring Advisors LLC"
973-829-1962 or by email at the address below:
Take me back to the Sand Spring Home Page
Comments or Problems
Thank you for visiting Sand Spring Advisors LLC, Inc. We hope to hear from you again soon. For more information on Sand Spring Advisors actual programs, services, or to request a copy of a Disclosure Document, please phone us at 973 829 1962, FAX your request to 973 829 1962, or e-mail us at information@Sandspring.com
| Corporate Office: 10 Jenks Road, Morristown, NJ 07960 Phone: 973 829 1962 Facsimile: 973 829 1962 |
Best Experienced with
Click here to start.
The material located on this website is also the copyrighted work of Sand Spring Advisors LLC. No party may copy, distribute or prepare derivative works based on this material in any manner without the expressed permission of Sand Spring Advisors LLC
This page and all contents are Copyright © 2002 by Sand Spring Advisors, LLC, Morristown, NJ