Sand Spring Advisors LLC

Sand Spring Advisors LLC

Ouch! Duck in the Very Short-Term

April 3, 2003

by, Barclay T. Leib

Chart constructed using Advanced GET End-of-Day
Two days ago we espoused with some certainty that 8105 should cap the DJIA. No sooner had pen met HTLM page, but prices vaulted above our resistance level. We were truly surprised and personally hurt a bit in our positioning.
Now that such has occured however, and while risking being caught by yet another short term "hook" move, we must espouse that in the very short-term our long discussed 972-974 region on the S&P 500 once again looks possible -- if not now probable. The fact that the recent 60-minute chart rhythm of the S&P 500 fits such an extrapolated high quite nicely has redoubled this level as an important potential high in our mind. If we get there, rest assured: it will be a stupid move, likely driven by short-term euphoria over Iraqi war success, and a great selling opportunity. But for now, we must lay low once again.
Longer term, equity fundamentals still stink. In the short-term, silly sentiment-driven moves reign.

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Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. The opinions expressed are not intended as specific investment advice, and simply represent our personal views offered here under our right of free speech. Sand Spring Advisors is a NFA registered CTA/CPO, but is not a Registered Investment Advisor. We do not directly trade any client funds. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.

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This article lays out various cyclical concerns we have for June and July 2003, as well as more immediate opportunities on the long side of Asian markets in the short-term. March 18-19 and July 27-29 are two specific cycle windows that we are focused on. ....
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Subscribe to Sandspring.com on a quarterly basis and receive all of the the above articles, and all that follow them (a minimum of 3 more per quarter), plus all Chart du Jours (some of which would otherwise be pay-per-view) for just $85. THIS INCLUDES OUR March 23rd article -- "Dealing with Irrationality & The New Age of Aquarius: Malkiel Out; Sornette In." This article steps through our March 19th cycle date that marked the commencement of the Iraqi War, and the one chart pattern that could turn us more consrtuctive in the short-term than we currently are. It also lauds UCLA professor Didier Sornette's latest work on the rhythm of market behavior.

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