Sand Spring Advisors LLC

Sand Spring Advisors LLC

Food Fight Territory: JPY

December 5, 2002

by, Barclay T. Leib

Chart constructed using Advanced GET End-0f-Day

Past Sandspring.com readers know that on a Fibonacci rhythm basis we have a long-term target for USD/JPY up near 167.50. However, on its slow march in that direction, our Fibonacci bands suggest a stiff zone of resistance between 125.75 and 126.45. We are also somewhat disturbed by the overlap in the chart back in November with the August range. This is not as nice and clean a picture as we would like.
From a risk management point of view, it may be advisable to take some long dollar positions off the table at this juncture and watch how the market behaves in this now region. A swift rally through 126.45 would be quite exciting to see, but with the euro still poised to reach 1.04, how realistic is it to bet on a dollar acceleration against the yen right now? A failure in the 125.75-126.45 region might easily lead to a more extended period of backing and filling before our longer-term upside price target eventually beckons.

Non-subscribers are invited to access our November 9th article, "Iceberg Risk: A Rumbling Earth & Mortgage Market Malaise," together with our October 4th subscriber-only missive ("The Ancient History of Math, Current Pi Cyclical Rhythms, and The Macro Picture in Europe and Asia in Relation to the U.S"), and other part articles, by signing up for a quarterly Sandspring.com subscription below.

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Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.

72,22,7 -- The Ancient Language of Mathematics, Upcoming Pi-Related Cyclical Rhythms & The Macro Picture in Europe and Asia in Relation to the U.S...October 2002...
This is an updated overview of how we see 2003-2004 developing, and offers specific date clusters related to pi rhythms that should be of particular importance to the financial markets. For those interested in the history of pi mathematics through ancient times, much historical context is also offered....
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- The New Era of Government, Debt Default & Weakening Consumerism...August 2002...
  This article offers a long-term look at interest rate trends and its anticipated interplay with the now sagging U.S. consumer and retail sector.
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- Biotech Bottom?...July 2002...
  Within this article we anticipated a tradeable rally developing in the Biotech sector between July and November 2002. Several security-specific chart patterns are examined. A second update to this piece, published in mid-July, further elaborated on the broader market indices. We eventually got our bounce in these broader indices post July 23rd, but the Biotechs were quite honestly a disappointment.
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- A Coincidence of Time...June 2002...
  Within this article we consider a variety of cycle timing techniques that upon occasion form important date clusters.
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- In Search of Survivable Themes...May 2002...
  Within this article we consider survivable investment themes in today's markets, and two small-cap stocks from down under that may fit this bill.
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- Pension Asset & Liability Blues...March 2002...
  Within this article we explore much misunderstood and underestimated ERISA and FAS accounting that could cause a two-decade long malaise in corporate profitability. We also update many of our previously espoused long and short views.
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- Complicated Moves...February 2002...
  A temporarily bullish look at the DJIA, written in late February 2002, together with a discussion of several value stocks that we like within this market.
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- Zig-Zag Markets, and What Will Go Thud that Hasn't Already...January 2002...
  In this article, we discuss the path we expect into our important November 2002 cycle date, and several specific short selling opportunities in industries as far afield as trucks to bread...
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- 2002: A Golden Year? ...December 2001...
  In this article, we explore the cyclical rhythm of the gold and gold equity market, and what it portends for next year. Several stock-specific charts and fundamentals are examined...
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- Kasriel to Greenspan: Farewell Soon? ...November 2001...
  In this article, across 17 chart-filled pages, Northern Trust chief economist Paul Kasriel scathingly exposes many of the flaws of Alan Greenspan's Fed, and how Greenspan may actually have set the economy up for the 2000 Tech-Wreck...
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- The Cycle of War & The Agony of Debt...October 2001...
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- Perspectives on Where We Are, and Why ISDA Documentation Will Not Prevent Derivatives Accidents, September 2001...
  An update on prior views and prognostications, as well as a discussion of a new market sector now potentially coming to life on the long side. We also examine how easy it might be for a major bank such as JP Morgan to someday suffer a serious derivatives accident
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- Long_Term Equity, Gold, and K-Wave Cycle Thoughts, August 2001...
  A long-term look at our own cycle theories and how they may potentially interact with the famous Kondratieff cycle
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- The Importance of June 2nd, May, 2001...
  A cyclical look at the 8.6 month cycle at work in the current equity market, and one financial stock with a nasty looking "pattern match" to a historical chart pattern
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- Expert Short Picks, May, 2001...
  A discussion of the fundamental thoughts of short selling hedge fund manager James Chanos within a technical framework
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- Four Themes for 2001 & Beyond, April, 2001...
  A variety of issues we see growing in importance over the year 2001, with a particular emphasis on certain issues within the U.S. food chain.
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- Portfolio from Hell, January 20, 2001...
  a close critique of a major mutual fund manager and a technical look at the individual equity components of their go-go portfolio.
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- Positive for Now, January 4, 2001...
  If the DJIA were to vault to new highs, where would the imbedded Fibonacci rhythm of its price action lead?
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- Time to Start Accumulating the Golds? - Dec. 2000...
  We take a close look at four gold-related stocks that we favor.
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- Don't Look for a Bottom Until..., Nov. 2000...
  An update of some Fibonacci thoughts on eight selected stocks.
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- Diamonds in the Sky, Oct. 2000...
  A close technical look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the implications of the formation it has made.
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- The Signficance of Oct 27- Nov 1, Oct. 2000...
  This analysis did not pan out quite as we expected, but is a good example of how we examine the world in Fibonacci terms.
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- M&A Currency Imbalances, Oct. 2000...
  An interview with a well known fund manager and economic thinker, we explore some of the macro-imabalnces as they exist in the world today.
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- Failed Accounting Standards, Mmm Mmm Good, and Where (if at all) to Invest in Bandwidth, July 2000...
  A three-part article outlining some of the balance sheet fun and games of today's financial world, one old-world stock, as well as our vision of the potential fallout and opportunities in the bandwidth market
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- Cyclical Commodity Turns, May 2000...
  As we entered the summer-time harvest season, this was a cyclical look at the world of wheat, corn, gold, and the CRB. Much of the analysis proved premature, but it still leaves us with some long-term cyclical dates to now keep in mind.
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- E-Commerce: A Paired Approach, April 2000...
  This is a more fundamentally oriented article examing the likely winners and losers as e-commerce increasingly invades the transactional side of Wall Street.
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