Sand Spring Advisors LLC
The Unfinished Fib Rhythm of the DJTA & NYA
November 28, 2002
by, Barclay T. Leib
If our November 7th equity market highs have been exceeded, as they have been, does this abrogate our bearish view?
The answer is indeed no, and we warned back at the end of our November 14th Chart du Jour commentary that we were technically unsatisfied at that time with having left a high only at the low end of our anticipated 925-975 S&P 500 resistance region. We suggested that if a "Three Peak & Domed House" hourly S&P chart pattern were not to hold, then a secondary high maybe all the way up at 975 on the S&P into November 26-27 (34 trading days after the Oct 9-10th low) was still possible.
Our trading strategy at the time was to get flat on our prior longs into the November 7th cycle window, but we did not substantially start building any short position until Nov 26th. Wednesday's snap back rally after Tuesday weakness was impressive (if irritating), and maybe 975 will still be seen in the current upswing, but we are now finally comfortable getting ourselves 50% net short our typical exposure at current levels, and then adding to this if 975 is in fact seen. We'll work with a stop loss at 983 against these positions.
Looking at other charts of major indices, we still see a definite low missing in the Dow Jones Transportation average down near 1788. Could UAL's potential bankruptcy announcement in early December send us toward that objective first espoused all the way back on September 18, 2001 and modestly revised back on April 21, 2002?
Chart constructed using Advanced GET End-0f-Day
Elswehere, the New York Stock Exchange Index (NYA) also clearly shows a missing low on a Fibonacci rhythm basis down near 389.80.
Chart constructed using Advanced GET End-0f-Day
All the recent chop has indeed been frustrating, irritating, and difficult -- even for the best of traders. But The time has come to stake a position that this chop will now peter out into more fundamental and technical market weakness.
It's unfortunate not to be able to be more upbeat on this Thanksgiving, but we truly believe that recent market froth is yet another misguided short-term market swing. We also wish all of our readers and subscribers our very best for the holidays.
Non-subscribers are invited to access our November 9th article, "Iceberg Risk: A Rumbling Earth & Mortgage Market Malaise," together with our October 4th subscriber-only missive ("The Ancient History of Math, Current Pi Cyclical Rhythms, and The Macro Picture in Europe and Asia in Relation to the U.S"), and other part articles, by signing up for a quarterly Sandspring.com subscription below.
How Your Articles Are Delivered
Upon the processing of your credit card or the receipt of a personal check, Sand Spring will e-mail you the articles requested as a Word attachment, and also provide you with a WWW address and password to view the article on the web without using Word should you so desire. Confirmation of your order will be immediate, and the actual article will follow by e-mail typically within a few hours and in all cases before the opening of NYSE trading on the following day.
Ordering by Credit Card:
Our shopping cart is designed for both physical and subscription products, so do not be confused too much when it asks you for a shipping address. A correct address is important only for credit card authorization purposes. Your e-mail information is the most important piece of information to us for proper delivery of your article(s).
Disclosure Statement
Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.
If you order by credit card, your credit card will be billed as "Sand Spring Advisors LLC"
973-829-1962 or by email at the address below:
Take me back to the Sand Spring Home Page
Comments or Problems
Thank you for visiting Sand Spring Advisors LLC, Inc. We hope to hear from you again soon. For more information on Sand Spring Advisors actual programs, services, or to request a copy of a Disclosure Document, please phone us at 973 829 1962, FAX your request to 973 829 1962, or e-mail us at information@Sandspring.com
| Corporate Office: 10 Jenks Road, Morristown, NJ 07960 Phone: 973 829 1962 Facsimile: 973 829 1962 |
Best Experienced with
Click here to start.
The material located on this website is also the copyrighted work of Sand Spring Advisors LLC. No party may copy, distribute or prepare derivative works based on this material in any manner without the expressed permission of Sand Spring Advisors LLC
This page and all contents are Copyright © 2002 by Sand Spring Advisors, LLC, Morristown, NJ