Sand Spring Advisors LLC
Picking a Definitive Low in AOL
July 2, 2002
by, Barclay T. Leib
Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day
In early 2000 when AOL was trading in the 60's, we concurred with loose "pattern match" analysis done by others that AOL could easily follow the path of RCA in the depression years -- falling as much as 80-90% in value. We said this despite AOL's preeminent position within the Internet world. After all, RCA held a similar preeminent position within the radio world in the 1930's, but its stock price still got hammered during that period, subsequently spending the better part of 17 years before eventually being able to recover its pre-crash highs.
But as AOL fast approaches the 10.40-10.55 region, where we see definitive Fibonacci support, we will be buyers of this stock. While we greatly dislike the overlap of waves 1 and 4 despicted in the Advanced GET "auto"-Elliott Wave Countn shown above, at some Elliott level, this stock is fast becoming very oversold -- even if on a huge A-B-C basis, as opposed to the GET count. This quality company (albeit with a poorly timed takeover of Time Warner) is also a survivor longer-term.
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