Sand Spring Advisors LLC
Updated FX Views
June 2, 2002
by, Barclay T. Leib
Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day
Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day
A number of subscribers have asked us to update our views on Euro-fx and USD/JPY. We have been quiet on the currencies after having mis-diagnosed the direction of the breakout from the long coiling "pennant" formation of the GBP-DEM (Euro-GBP) chart. A bit more adroitly, we previously advised to exit longs in USD/JPY at Fibonacci resistance between 134.5-134.80, and have been uninvolved ever since.
At this juncture, we think it likely that the USD/JPY decline has largely run its course. A few pokes lower into late June may still occur, so there is no rush to re-establish a position long dollars yet, but we are starting to get ready to do so. Stay tuned for exact timing.
The euro meanwhile, still looks relatively sporty to the upside. As long as support near .8918 holds, our Fibonacci bands suggest that the 200-day moving average near .9766 will be tested, and a push up to 100.16 possible, if not likely. Once a .9766-100.16 target range is reached, we will turn agnostic again, perhaps even bearish the euro. Somewhere down the road, over the longer-term, we still feel an ultimate low near .7750-.7825 may be reached.
But for now, if we were to have one overall view, the euro-yen weekly price action (shown on the chart below) will continue to move higher.
Chart courtesy of Futuresource.com
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