Sand Spring Advisors LLC
A Possible Path
May 22, 2002
by, Barclay T. Leib
Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day
The weekly chart above of the S&P 500 contains a variety of technical tools available on the Advanced GET system.
First, we have stretched Fibonacci bands toward a long-term downside target that has a reasonable "fit" to the recent declining price action. Admittedly, we've seen better "fits" than this one on other chart patterns, and there are indeed several other ways to stretch these bands that still look reasonable, but alas we have taken a long-term stab to forecast a basing range.
Second, the green lines on the right of the chart represent various "Fibonacci clusters" measured between intermediate and minor highs and lows over the last 1000 bars. The longer a green bar, then the more Fibonacci retracements of different moves -- whether they be 9.01%, 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, 73.6%, 90.98% etc. -- exist at that level. A great number of green bars clustered within a given range can also be significant.
Third, we show Advanced GET's "Make or Break" or so-called MOB technical study. This technical tool uses past market price behavior and volatility, taken together with the level of the last major low, to forecast potential targets for any further new lows.
Lastly, we have typed in our cycle forecast for late June lows and an early November high of some sort.
Combining all this work, we see two Fibonacci clusters of support/resistance right near the current price range (hence the recent choppy stickiness). The next level of Fibonacci cluster support doesn't appear until down near 995, with a MOB target near 897. Longer term, a large cluster of Fibonacci retracements exists between 569 and 769. It is toward this latter region that we expect this market to eventually migrate. But if the market is holding into late June near either 995 or 897, it should be a short term buy for a trade. In between now and then, of course, the angst within the market should continue to build. A degree of capitulation and true fear should also evolve.
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