The Chart du Jour

HM and AU: Don't Be Too Greedy

May 17, 2001

By, Barclay T. Leib


Chart produced using Advanced GET End-of-Day

Subscribers may remember our December 20th missive Time to Start Accumulating the Golds? in which we featured positive technical commentary on Anglogold at $14 and Homestake at 4 1/4.

Those two stocks are now fast approaching resistance levels at $21 and $8 respectively. The daily chart above of Homestake shows an extrapolated Fibonacci rhythm basis the daily chart being complete near the $8-8.35 area, and this is also the region of the 200-week moving average (not shown). $21 similarly represents the region of the 200-week moving average for Anglogold, and a reasonably tight Fibonacci fit (although in AU's case, one could make a Fibonacci-based argument for a variety of other higher levels as well).

Maybe these stocks will punch through to the upside for the big kahuna move gold has lacked for so long. But if we were an odds-maker, we would guess they will not -- at least not without some sort of guargantuan struggle near these resistance levels first.

Don't mind us if we take profits, and say thank you. Historically we are usually early into our positions and a bit early out of them, but we definitely want to further lighten our long gold positions here -- Easy Al Greenspan notwithstanding.


Non-subscribers are invited to sign up for a quarterly subscription below. Sand Spring's latest subscriber-only article "Expert Short Picks," as well as our prior February 20th article "Measuring Financial Time: The Magic of Pi," and current "FNMA Daily View" will both be accessible on the final page of the order process. A user-id and password for web access to all past and future articles will then follow by e-mail.

It may also be of interest to some that because so much time (and thus timeliness) has now transpired, we recently released three of our 2000 subscriber-only articles. These now appear under the public Earlier Articles section of the website. Perusing through them may give one a sense of the added premium level of analysis we provide to subscribers.


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