The Chart du Jour
Sometimes markets have to come just to the edge of feigning disaster, or extend a period of dormancy so long as to wring every last bit of bullishness out of a market. Such is the case of silver market pictured above. Anyone even still looking at a silver chart after all these months of sideways to downward chop must either be overtly stubborn or stupid.
And yet, on an Elliott Wave basis, if one looks back at the late 1997 rally, we see a clear impulsive move followed by what could be a huge A-B-C period of retracement. Was this a I-II Elliott Wave pattern, soon to evolve into a much deferred wave III up? Although one more short term spike lower in the market is possible, longer term, we think it is.
Fundamentally, silver is a bi-product of copper mining, and as economic weakness and fiber-optic cables both eat away at the demand for copper -- thereby closing copper mines and smelters -- it will also indirectly reduce the supply of silver. Meanwhile, for certain industrial electrical conductivity purposes, silver can serve as a replacement metal for the now far more expensive other white metals, platinum and palladium.
A long here, with a stop set near 3.93 (well under the 1997 4.155 low in order to allow for a false spike sometimes orchestrated by locals to catch stops under prior lows) is worthy of consideration.
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