Sand Spring Advisors LLC

The Chart du Jour

Too Big a Bear

March 13, 2001

By, Barclay T. Leib

Can anyone remember the last time the venerable New York Times posted a bear a full half-page in length on the front of their Business Day section? I can't, but a bit in the style of analyst Paul Montgomery, I do find it yet another anecdotal sign that recent equity weakness is closer to ending than accelerating.
We've posted bears on Sandspring.com from time to time -- most notably when we were strongly bearish late last August. We will not do so today. As Merrill Lynch downgrades stock after stock that they previously recommended far higher, and the New York Times tells us what has happened instead of what will, Sandspring.com will ever so quietly suggest: buy, with a Nasdaq 100 stop firmly in hand near 1645.

Subscribers are invited to click here for immediate access to our latest in-depth article: "Measuring Financial Time: The Magic of Pi." The article is 10 pages in length, and in it, we touch upon two centuries of financial history. We also leave readers with our cyclical vision for the next decade, as well as a shorter term perspective of the NASDAQ 100 index for the balance of the year.
Non-subscribers are invited to sign up for a quarterly subscription below.
It also may be of interest to some as well that because so much time (and thus timeliness) has now transpired, we recently released three of our 2000 subscriber-only articles. These now appear under the public Earlier Articles section of the website. Perusing through them may give one a sense of the added premium level of analysis we provide to subscribers.
For immediate web-based access to our latest subscriber-only February 25th analysis, please support Sand Spring Advisors and purchase a quarterly subscription below. Our latest work will be accessible on the final page of the order process. A user-id and password for web access to all past and future articles will follow by e-mail.

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Disclosure Statement

Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.

Portfolio from Hell, January 22, 2001...
a close critique of a major mutual fund manager and a technical look at the individual equity components of their go-go portfolio...
Available for Purchase at $35. THIS INCLUDES ALL ARTICLES BELOW FOR FREE.
- Positive for Now, January 4, 2001...
  If the DJIA were to vault to new highs, where would the imbedded Fibonacci rhythm of its price action lead?
  Available for FREE with purchase above.
- Time to Start Accumulating the Golds? - Dec. 2000...
  We take a close look at four gold-related stocks that we favor.
  Available for FREE with purchase above.
- Don't Look for a Bottom Until..., Nov. 2000...
  An update of some Fibonacci thoughts on eight selected stocks.
  Available for FREE with purchase above.
- Diamonds in the Sky, Oct. 2000...
  A close technical look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the implications of the formation it has made.
  Available for FREE with purchase above.
- The Signficance of Oct 27- Nov 1, Oct. 2000...
  This analysis did not pan out quite as we expected, but is a good example of how we examine the world in Fibonacci terms.
  Available for FREE with purchase above.
- M&A Currency Imbalances, Oct. 2000...
  An interview with a well known fund manager and economic thinker, we explore some of the macro-imabalnces as they exist in the world today.
  Available for FREE with purchase above.
- Failed Accounting Standards, Mmm Mmm Good, and Where (if at all) to Invest in Bandwidth, July 2000...
  A three-part article outlining some of the balance sheet fun and games of today's financial world, one old-world stock, as well as our vision of the potential fallout and opportunities in the bandwidth market
  Available for FREE with purchase above.
- Cyclical Commodity Turns, May 2000...
  As we entered the summer-time harvest season, this was a cyclical look at the world of wheat, corn, gold, and the CRB. Much of the analysis proved premature, but it still leaves us with some long-term cyclical dates to now keep in mind.
  Available for FREE with purchase above.
- E-Commerce: A Paired Approach, April 2000...
  This is a more fundamentally oriented article examing the likely winners and losers as e-commerce increasingly invades the transactional side of Wall Street.
  Available for FREE with purchase above.
- Nasdaq Crash and Stopping Point?...February, 2000...
  This article examines the Elliott wave pattern of the Nasdaq's Price-Earnings Ratio since 1995, as well as various analog pattern matches involving the Nasdaq. It also looks at mutual fund cash levels, mutual fund positioning, and changes in the monetary base. It sketches out a possible path for the Nasdaq that may prove a valuable "roadmap" for trading over the balance of the year.
  Available for FREE with the purchase of article above.
Subscribe to Sandspring.com on a quarterly basis and receive all of the the above articles, and all that follow them (a minimum of 3 more per quarter), plus all Chart du Jours (some of which would otherwise be pay-per-view) for just $65. THIS INCLUDES OUR LATEST ARTICLE PUBLISHED February 25th entitled "Measuring Financial Time: The Magic of Pi." In it, we outline our expected equity path cyclically over the next decade, as well as more specifically for the current year.

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