Suffice it to say, we remain of the opinion that whichever candidate wins, that candidate will likely regret his victory in a few years time. The bull market of yesteryear simply ended on a momentum basis last December, and neither of these chaps is likely to bring it back. Because they will be unable to do so, whomever is elected -- with time -- will be blamed and become unpopular.

What we do continue to see, and as commented on before last Friday's negatively received government economic numbers, is a definite negative look and feel to the U.S. T-bond contract. This has become even worse this Monday morning as the T-Bond futures break down through the 40-day and 100-day moving averages. Something is just beginning here, and it looks ugly.

Chart courtesy of FutureSource.com

Last heard, John Meriwether of Long Term Capital infamy is back in business with a new $400 million hedge fund. Last heard as well, his biggest position is now long 30-year bonds and short 10-year bonds -- playing the U.S. debt retirement game. What Meriwether consistently forgets however is that financial markets are not just driven by politicians and central bankers, but by bigger cyclical forces. Inflation is turning higher, as are U.S. interest rates. Meriwether's trade is flawed yet again. If there is one initial fallout of this election, a lower long bond market is on the agenda.

We are beginning more work for subscribers on both the T-Bond and the U.S. dollar at the moment. Stay tuned for more definitive price and time objectives here.

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Sand Spring Advisors provides information and analysis from sources and using methods it believes reliable, but cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses that may be incurred as a result of our analysis. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities, and should always trade at a position size level well within their financial condition. Principals of Sand Spring Advisors may carry positions in securities or futures discussed, but as a matter of policy will always so disclose this if it is the case, and will specifically not trade in any described security or futures for a period 5 business days prior to or subsequent to a commentary being released on a given security or futures.