The Chart du Jour

Who's in Denial?

May 16, 2000

By, Barclay T. Leib

Am I in denial, or is this market in denial? Here we go again -- an unlikely party in stocks on a day where the Fed raises interest rates, the true impact of this move being hidden somewhere in either last week's trading or next week's -- but certainly not in Tuesday's price action itself. The market is turning increasingly perverse and silly.

Today, we have but one piece of advice for people who felt so compelled to buy stocks on such a day: go back and read this one article by Yale economist Robert Shiller that appeared in the Washington Post last Saturday. Despite Shiller's perma-bear leanings, he makes a great point that bear markets don't ring a bell and tell people when to take their money off the table. Unfortunately, with price action like we had on Monday and Tuesday, our society is now going to learn this the hard way.

Meanwhile, there is a new article entitled "Cyclical Commodity Turns" posted for subscribers only here.

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  • Cyclical Commodity Turns, May 2000...
    As we enter the summer-time harvest season, this is a cyclical look at the world of wheat, corn, gold, and the CRB.
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    This article examines the Elliott wave pattern of the Nasdaq's Price-Earnings Ratio since 1995, as well as various analog pattern matches involving the Nasdaq. It also looks at mutual fund cash levels, mutual fund positioning, and changes in the monetary base. It sketches out a possible path for the Nasdaq that may prove a valuable "roadmap" for trading over the balance of the year.
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